İklim Değişikliğinin Su Kaynakları Üzerindeki Etkileri ve Uluslararası Göç Dinamikleri: Ekonomik Yaklaşımlar ve Politika Tartışmaları
The Impacts of Climate Change on Water Resources and International Migration Dynamics: Economic Approaches and Policy Debates
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.21012164Anahtar Kelimeler:
İklim Değişikliği, Su Ekonomisi, İklim Mültecileri, Uluslararası Göç, Sürdürülebilir Kalkınma, Türkiye, Hidro-Politik.Özet
Avrupa ile Asya’nın kesişim noktasında yer alan Türkiye Cumhuriyeti, farklı türlerdeki göç akımlarına maruz kalan bir ülkedir. İklim değişikliğiyle daha da şiddetlenen sınır aşan su stresi, kırsal geçim kaynakları ve tarımsal kırılganlık üzerinde önemli etkiler yaratarak göç baskılarını artırmaktadır. Farklı mekânsal ölçeklerde elde edilen ampirik bulgular, iklim–göç ilişkisine dair güçlü bir bağa işaret etmektedir. Türkiye’de uluslararası dış göçün tarihsel bölgesel örüntüleri, iklim kaynaklı kuraklık değişkenleriyle uyum göstermektedir. Biçimsel bir arz-kanalı modeli, yağış şoklarının tarımsal üretim ve gelir üzerindeki etkilerine karşı yüksek bir duyarlılık ortaya koymakta; bu etkilerin refah sonuçlarının, kapsamlı ve önemli bir vergi yüküne eşdeğer olabileceğini göstermektedir. Bu çalışma, 21. yüzyılın en kritik küresel sorunlarından biri olan iklim değişikliğinin su kaynakları üzerindeki baskısını ve bu durumun tetiklediği göç hareketlerini nitel bir perspektiften incelemektedir. Antroposen çağında artan karbon emisyonlarının bozduğu hidrolojik döngüler; özellikle kurak ve yarı kurak coğrafyalarda su kıtlığını derinleştirmekte, tarımsal üretim sistemlerini zayıflatmakta ve toplumsal kırılganlıkları artırmaktadır. Bu bağlamda çalışma, su kıtlığının göç kararlarını şekillendiren bir “itici faktör” olarak nasıl işlediğini, Yeni Ekonomik Göç Teorisi (NELM), çevresel göç literatürü ve kırılganlık–uyum çerçeveleri üzerinden tartışmaktadır. Araştırma, Orta Doğu, Kuzey Afrika (MENA) ve Sahra Altı Afrika bölgelerinde iklim değişikliği, su stresi ve nüfus hareketliliği arasındaki ilişkiyi ortaya koyan nitel literatürü bütüncül şekilde ele almaktadır. Bölgesel vaka incelemeleri üzerinden; suya erişimin azalması, tarımsal geçim kaynaklarının zayıflaması ve sosyo-ekonomik kırılganlıkların artması ile yer değiştirme dinamikleri arasındaki bağlantılar değerlendirilmiştir.
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